Although the US Semiconductor Industry Association now forecasts that chip sales, fuelled by CMOS microprocessors and memory devices, will grow by 38.2% worldwide this year, where in April it was forecasting 30.1% growth, it worries about the challenges that will face the industry as growth slows in 1989 and 1990. It is currently forecasting still healthy growth of 10.2% next year – it was forecasting just 3.9% as recently as April, so no-one better bet their mortgage on its current numbers – but now expects a fall of 3% in 1990. As for the US market, that is forecast to grow 35.3% this year to $13,900m, another 12.3% to $15,600m next year (other evidence such as the words from Advanced Micro and Wyse, above, makes that sound unlikely), before falling 6.6% in 1990 and climbing back 14.8% in 1991. For the Japanese market, it sees 38.5% growth this year to $17,600m and 9% growth next to $19,200m; in 1990, it reckons Japan will slip only 0.5% before growing 16.1% in 1991. As for Western Europe, growth of 31.3% to $8,100m is seen for this year, slowing to 4.4% for $8,400m, before falling 2% in 1990, and rising 12.2% in 1991. Fastest growth is seen in the newly industrialised countries of South-East Asia, with chip shipments growing a whopping 58.6% to $5,300m this year, adding another 17.3% to $6,300m in 1989, a dip of 2.9% in 1990 and a rise of 11.2% in 1991. On the thorny problem of memory chip supply, the Japanese Ministry of International Trade & Industry says that Japanese output of 1Ms will rise 32.5% this quarter over the one just ended, and another 24% in first quarter 1989, but output of 256Ks will decline by 4% this quarter and by another 9% next.
