America’s three most prominent advocates of a return to top-down computing on the Internet – IBM Corp’s Lou Gerstner, Oracle Corp’s Larry Ellison and Sun Microsystems Inc’s Scott McNealy – seen to have missed the most important potential impact of their campaign: it will open the gates of the high technology business to a new wave of competition from outside the US. Currently, America is the world’s leading technology power because the demands of innovation in a complex world require a formidable educational infrastructure. To move the industry ahead, an innovator must master all that has occurred to date, something best done close to the source and in proximity to wealthy universities. The capitalization required to produce a new generation of processor chips or bring a software package to the world market is considerable and only the United States has the strong venture and public capital markets to do this in a significant way. Even with these two key ingredients, success requires looking ahead, and that necessarily means contact among developers, academicians, promising students and capitalists. America’s unified culture, ease of travel and general lifestyle favor this. Industries in which America has lost former dominanc e, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, have distinctively different characteristics. The know-how required to participate in these industries is relatively widespread and it does not require the same amount of expenditure by educational in stitutions. Moreover, despite the illusion of rapid change, mature industries like cars and home appliances have a slow rate of innovation. Or, more accurately, the portions of the products that involve technological innovation are relatively small compared with the total cost of development and manufacturing facilities. Capitalization can be done using a different model. By Hesh Wiener Banks and established economic empires, the primary sources of capital in countries outside the US, are comfortable with and capable of investing under such circumstances. By dumbing down computing, America’s three self-appointed heralds of a new fu ure will expand the economic pie and temporarily enrich the franchises of their company and similar enterprises, which is what they want. But in the long run it will give other countries or, more precisely, other enterprises, an opportunity at leas t as great as that available to industry participants in America, Japan and the other wealthy nations. Basically, if the Three Dummies of the Technology Apocalypse get their way, Internet terminals, enhanced home entertainment centers and systems ma de compatible by elementary Java software will become popular. These items, in contrast to personal computers and sophisticated software, can be made as well – or better – in Asia or Europe or, eventually, South America than in the United States. Th ere will be no need for manufacturers to understand the best way to use standard processors like the Intel chips, nor any requirement to stay in tune with Windows, Unix or Plan 9. Within a year or two, the economies of manufacturing scale for a host of other high technology products may appear in settings that are now relegated to the subservient roles of providing components, applications software or network content. Today’s second tier technology providers won’t be occasional guests at the c omputing party held by the United States and its wealthy friends. They will be the hosts. Heavily-armed And the United States, among others, which for a generation has been unwilling or unable to educate and otherwise care properly for a growing population of poor, unhappy, ambitious and heavily-armed citizens, may find that its future has turned very dark indeed. Wealthy regions can survive if they sufficiently fortify themselves, and many residents of these enclaves will be quite happy, we suppose. Among them may well be the IBMperor, the Grand Oracle and the Sun King. You, however, may not be quite as pleased. And it’s all because a few misguided people think it’s a good idea to lead barbarians against Bill Gates. (C) 1996 Technology News of America Co Inc. All rights reserved.
