The response of independent software vendors could be the crucial factor in Sun Microsystems’ Java lawsuit against Microsoft Corp over the long term, Wall Street analysts were saying yesterday. BankAmerica Robertson Stephens & Co argues that one way to view the action is as an ambitious grab for the mindshare of software vendors by Sun’s chief executive, Scott McNealy. If McNealy has indeed managed to catch an anti-Microsoft wave within the developer community, a reaction to Redmond’s Windows-centric Java technology program, then riding it all the way by pursuing a heightened Pure Java-on-Windows campaign could just swing the developer tide Sun’s way, it reckons. Hambrecht & Quist is more bearish about Sun’s prospects, believing the action ultimately plays into Microsoft’s hands, as developers are less likely to write new Java applications until the suit is settled. That time – which Microsoft could presumably extend by using all legal instruments to hand – will give Redmond an opportunity to re- group. SoundView Financial Group Inc argues that although Microsoft owns the developer community de facto, nothing it can do can ultimately stop software vendors using pure Java development tools to write Windows applications. Nevertheless they’ll have to be committed enough to ignore or replace all of the bells and whistles that Microsoft is likely to put in their paths. Merill Lynch & Co’s Steve Milunovich says the risk of the lawsuit is that users and developers are forced to pick between Microsoft and the Sun/Oracle/Netscape/IBM position. He thinks that if asked today, most developers would pick Microsoft. Merrill Lynch is mindful of comments made by attorneys to CNET suggesting that Sun is not likely to succeed in preventing Microsoft from implementing Java in its Internet Explorer browser even if it does prevent Microsoft from using the Java logo. Milunovich thinks such an outcome would be negative for Sun. One question on SoundView’s lips was whether Sun’s action might be enough to start a domino-type effect across the industry that might erode Microsoft’s dominance. Although not countenanced seriously by any of the brokerages when Sun launched its suit, yesterday’s action by the US Department of Justice certainly adds credence to those opinions.
