The US Semiconductor Industry Association is a sort of mirror image of the UK’s National Institute of Social & Economic Research in the 1980s, always coming out with forecasts for the semiconductor industry that prove way too optimistic in the event – and appear suspiciously bullish to the rest of us when they are made, just as the National Institute always seemed to preach doom and gloom regardless of what everyone else was perceiving. One eventually gets caught out in such forecasts, and the Semiconductor lobby in San Jose now says that worldwide growth in chip sales this year will be 9.9% – to $55,500m, down from the 12.5% it had been forecasting. Last year, worldwide sales rose 3.6%, but US sales fell 2.6%. For next year it sees worldwide growth of 14.5% to $63,600m, and expects growth in the US to be better, rising 15.3% to $18,000m. Some observers believe that the group may be overshooting the other way in its forecast for next year, but it is difficult to justify their belief given the trends in Japan and in Germany.
