Antitrust was one of the primary reasons for PeopleSoft’s original and ongoing rejection of Oracle’s advances, but that has now gone. Although the DoJ can appeal the decision, the utter decisiveness of the ruling suggests that Judge Vaughn Walker is unlikely to change his mind.

Another central reason for rejection was that Oracle’s bid, which at one point hit $26 per share and is now at $21, has consistently undervalued the company. This defense is sounding increasingly hollow given the effect of acquisition uncertainty combined with wider market and economic factors on PeopleSoft’s share price, which dropped from a heady $24, 12-month high to the $17.50 mark or below, where it has hovered for much of this year. As soon as the ruling appeared, it flew up by 10% as the financial market bet on Oracle eventually being triumphant.

There is the poison pill defense plan of course, but that will only be effective as long as shareholders hold firm with PeopleSoft. If they decide that greater rewards lie with Oracle, PeopleSoft’s board of directors will be forced to drop the anti-takeover mechanism or face a barrage of lawsuits alleging breach of fiduciary duty.

That’s not to say that Oracle’s success is guaranteed. There is the little matter of the EU investigation. Although it appears to have trodden carefully and avoided taking any actions that would put it at odds with the situation in the US, this may not continue. The antitrust criteria used by the EU in this case is different to that used by the DoJ but the implications go further than that and politics as much as business come into play. If the EU rules against Oracle, despite the court go-ahead, it will cause a huge rift that could impact future transatlantic dealings. Yet if it approves the bid, the EU will be accused of failing to act independently of the US and putting politics ahead of customers. Either way the decision is out of the control of either PeopleSoft or Oracle.

Outside the sphere of the two contenders, the IT industry and financial markets are weighing up the wider implications. If the deal does take place, it will open the way for further consolidation and the emergence of super-sized vendors. SAP, which is benefiting from the current situation, will be one of those most directly affected and it could lead to a reopening of the aborted Microsoft-SAP discussions.

Whatever the outcome, whether it is ripples or tidal waves, the effects of the hostile bid will be felt at great distance and for a long time.