Chip orders, which reached a high peak in June, will emerge in October from a shallow summer trough, Dr Moshe Handelsman of Advanced Forecasting in Cupertino believes.His IC Business Cycle Forecast indicates that shipments will continue to be in a growth phase until mid 1993, with a magnitude of growth similar to the 1987 rebound. I foresee that capacity shortages will prevent the IC industry from generating a pointed peak in late ’92. Instead we will enjoy a plateau at the $1,350m level in the US for most of the second half of ’92, he says. The book-to-bill ratio will continue its seasonal decline until October and then will resume climbing. In the first seven months of 1992, orders grew by 20.5% compared with 1991, while shipments grew only by 16%, which with other evidence leads Handelsman to conclude that 1992 will have a lot in common with 1988, a year of inadequate capacity and shortages in specific market segments. One of the main contributors to the strong market continues to be the computer end-equipment market; our computer leading indicator showed early signs of this recovery about two years in advance, and it has surpassed its previous peak during the bullish 1987-88 market.
