IBM UK has raised an eyebrow or two and caused some puzzlement among its competitors by announcing substantial reductions in its Maintenance Agreement Charges for the 4381 and the 308X. Maintenance on the 4381 is cut by 20%, that on the 308X machines by 15%. The general consensus from leasing companies and plug-compatible manufacturers is that the 3% increase announced in the US last July, effective from November, should have filtered to the UK. But although IBM UK increased most maintenance charges by 6% in September, the 3081 and 4381 were excepted. Most commentators dismiss the notion that IBMulators are making hay in the 3081 and 4381 base, and say that even if it were true, the 4391 would be untouchable for a few years and therefore, the older technology represents safer business. However, some leasing companies say that there are enough cheap 308X spares in the UK to force IBM into reducing maintenance costs in order to be competitive. One suggested that a similar situation may eventually arise with System/38 machines when the AS/400 has supplanted most of them. Yet, since maintenance charges normally increase before a launch, there is also speculation that IBM wants to prolong the life of the machines because of problems with the still-to-be-launched, air-cooled 4391. One other theory is that IBM will launch a very powerful 4391, which will provide an alternative upgrade for low-end 3090 users. Some watchers say it’s unlikely since it would hurt 3090 business, and IBM wants to keep that machine in the market for quite some time to come. Another thesis has it that IBM is still uncertain whether to maintain the distinction between the 43XX and the 9370 lines or merge them. The most machiavellian hypothesis to emerge so far, is that by reducing maintenance charges, IBM has increased the value of the machines, most of which are are owned by IBM Credit Corp. The company’s third party leasing competitors were unable to match or to make commercial sense of the deals that IBM Credit was writing on 4381s three and four years ago and by reducing the cost of maintenance, IBM is able to bolster the value of the IBM Credit lease portfolio – but that pre-supposes that there aren’t enough 4381s in the hands of other leasers and that IBM can easily realise the residuals built into its calculations – but several lessors say 4381s are now coming off lease in large quantities.
