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IBM has economists on the payroll that are probably as good as the best in the US Treasury, so an announcement yesterday that the company has filed with the US Securities & Exchange Commission a shelf registration for up to $1,000m of debt securities is being read as a warning that interest rates are likely to rise and that IBM wants to replenish its coffers while cash is relatively cheap. A shelf registration allows the paper to be sold as needed without further formalities.

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