A report from Forrester Research Inc, Cambridge, Massachusetts concludes from a survey of (only 50) senior executives at large companies that NetWare is a dying technology. The impression being given is a disastrous one for Novell, which by reason of the pervasiveness of NetWare should have held all the aces as the world moved to implement intranets. Forrester’s interviews with 50 senior executives revealed that while 90% of large companies have NetWare today, only 48% plan still to be using it in three years’ time. In addition, 72% said that Novell would not play a part in their internet or intranet plans. Forrester analysts trace these attitudes back to Windows NT, which is seen as a better strategic fit – despite the fact that NetWare does not exhibit the basic approaches found in Microsoft Corp that have to be fixed by an additional utility that simply inflates the bloatware crisis in the Microsoft world. But since NT can handle file and print services, run applications and includes native support of TCP/IP. Forrester predicts that while Novell prepares features such as native TCP/IP and cross-platform services, it will face 18 months of decreased sales volumes. The company reckons that Novell’s revenue will decrease by 2 5% this fiscal year, and will continue to fall until 1998, when it will settle at around $1bn. What the company does have in its favor, says Forrester, is its strong balance sheet and large installed base. However, jumping to the controversial conclusion that it is too late to save NetWare now that Novell is under new management, despite the fact that intranets are still in their infancy, Forrester says that as it believes intranet technologies will ultimately replace NetWare rather than being grafted on, Novell should quickly transition into a provider of standards-based services that enable the intranet. Meanwhile, large companies should not panic: the best strategy, says Forrester, is to spend tactically on file and print for the next two years and then begin to implement intranet protocols and products as they mature – all of which suggests its own conclusions, based on the plans of a mere 26 data processing managers, are premature.
