With handsets ranging from ¥30,000 to ¥60,000, it is unclear how much demand there will be for the new phones. The FT has suggested that demand will be low; due to the expected slump in personal consumption in Japan. Demand is expected to slump even further due to a worldwide economic downturn and rising unemployment. DoCoMo will only have about 20,000-plus handsets at the launch and 150,000 in the first six months. This compares with an average 350,000 to 450,000 new subscribers per month for its current services.
European companies are paying particular interest. They will be using the same W-CDMA technology that is in place in Japan, therefore nervous shareholders will use the Japanese launch as an indicator of what to expect for their networks.
Regardless of the high cost of handsets, other fears have tempered enthusiasm amongst the public. The short life span of the handsets batteries has caused consternation, as has the level of service available. President of DoCoMo, Mr Tachikawa admits that services, such as mobile music and video, which were supposed to be the killer applications for 3G, may not be successful, due to copyright issues and the high cost of music and video downloading. Roaming facilities will not be truly operational until the launch of other international networks.
As a measure of public anticipation the Japanese popularity should not be taken as a sure sign of success in the US and Europe. In Japan consumers have had a taste of the benefits of mobile data services and their appetite for appealing entertainment applications and business demand for mobile information will drive demand for high-speed services. Customers in the worlds other dominant markets will be more difficult to convert to the application of mobile technology.
