Ericsson has announced it is already developing fourth generation mobile phones.
Mobile equipment vendor Ericsson announced on Monday that the company has started planning a fourth generation of mobile systems, offering internet access at up to fifty times the speed of the third generation systems expected to launch next year. The fourth generation (4G) systems will operate entirely on the Internet Protocol (IP), and will operate as interactive virtual reality devices.
The development is unlikely to bring any new technology any time soon. Ericsson estimates that this technology will be launched around 2011. But mobile phone operators might view even this date as rather too early. Datamonitor forecasts that the rollout of 66 UMTS systems in 15 key markets in Western Europe will cost $280 billion (for infrastructure and license fees). Companies will be reluctant to write this off after so little time.
Fortunately for all concerned, they are unlikely to have to. The transition from 3G to 4G should be less expensive than the transition from GSM. 4G will use the same frequency bands as 3G, so the license auction frenzy will not be repeated. In addition, the transition for users will be much less dramatic. Many of the front-end features, including position location, simple artificial intelligence, and even IP-based networking will appear during the lifecycle of 3G systems.
So why has Ericsson have made this announcement now? The most likely explanation seems to be as a PR stunt. The company is doing very well at landing 3G contracts and designing 3G devices. The announcement implies that Ericsson is so sure of its 3G abilities that it can move to the next step. This move should boost investor and customer confidence alike, even though most of the firm’s R&D capacity is certainly still devoted to ensuring everything goes according to plan with UMTS.
