The technical consultancy group Global Insight conducted the study which spanned 79 countries, and found that the annual number of electronic payment transactions is growing at a compounded annual rate of 12.9%, equal to four times the expected growth in real gross domestic product (GDP).
During the five-year period from 2004 to 2009, forecast volumes for electronic payments are expected to double across the world, with China and India doubling more quickly at a rate of every three and four years, respectively.
However, the Eastern Europe and Asia/Pacific regions are forecast to lead the world in electronic payment transaction growth, predicted at 21.6% and 19.2% respectively, for the period of 2004 to 2009. Other regions including the Middle East, forecast to increase 15.9%, and NAFTA (North American Free Trade Alliance), expected to grow 12.3%.
The study shows that the use of checks will continue to decline. In 2004 approximately 20% of non-cash transactions were check-based; in 2009, only 10% of total payments are predicted to be in check form.
Jeffrey Hale, chief marketing officer at ACI, commented on the impact of the study’s findings. Across the world, electronic payments represent a significant growth opportunity for banks, payments processors and retailers. In many regions, system capacity will need to double every three to five years, or faster, to keep pace with the increases in payments volumes. At the same time, payments providers are under pressure to lower their cost of doing business and better manage risk.
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