The growth rate of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) content in personal computers (PCs) is set for a historic decline, according to a new IHS iSuppli DRAM Market Brief, from information and analysis provider IHS.
The average annual increase in DRAM amount for each new PC is not expected to exceed 35% after 2012, down from an average 48% during the last quarter-century.
As per the market brief, after climbing 38% in 2009 and 25% in 2010, average DRAM content per PC will rise 30% in 2011.
Such a level would represent a significant slowdown from the compounded annual rate of 48% from 1985 to 2009 and from the 40 to 45% yearly expansions routinely seen in the early 2000s.
IHS finds the reason for the progressively smaller rates of increase in DRAM, the main memory in computers, is the tendency among recent and emerging operating systems to run leaner.
Each new release in Microsoft’s line of Windows operating systems historically demanded greater computing resources and more memory content.
Significant jumps in DRAM content occurred with the release of Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Vista.
And while a dramatic bump in DRAM content did not materialize for Windows XP during delivery of the operating system in 2001, DRAM content rose, in fact, during the two years after the XP release.
The pattern stopped, however, with Windows 7, which had the same DRAM requirements as its predecessor, Windows Vista.
Now it appears that the path established by Windows 7 is ready to continue in the forthcoming Windows 8 operating system, slated for release in the second half of 2012.
IHS believes, as the appetite for digital data swells continually among consumers, so too will the memory requirements needed to feed the ravening beast.
IHS DRAM and memory principal analyst Mike Howard said with DRAM content growth slowing, memory suppliers will have to look beyond the PC for a growth driver to areas such as the smartphone and tablet.
"While new devices will certainly add incremental demand, the industry’s long-relied-upon growth from PCs will be sorely missed," Howard said.