Reading tealeaves is an exact science simple to practise compared with interpreting the signals coming out of Tokyo about the future of the second international telecommunications licence, but the latest signs suggest that the outcome may well be that licences are eventually awarded to both the Cable & Wireless-C Itoh International Digital Communications, and to the International Telecom Japan consortia now that merger talks between the two seem to have broken down irretrievably: such a move would tend to reduce the impact on present monopoly player Kokusai Denshin Denwa, because ITJ will simply be reselling capacity on Kokusai’s transmission systems while IDC intends to lay its own fibre optic cable across the Pacific – and definitely would not agree to merge with ITJ unless the transpacific cable went ahead.
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