World computer market grew modest 6.3% in 1993 as mainframe sales dwindled
One of the problems with the market analysis business is that it is perceived to be more important to get the numbers out quickly than to be correct down to the second point of decimals, and some amazingly sloppy and unconvincing market research is doing the rounds. Nevertheless, many people need ballpark figures not least because many bosses or boards are unwilling to act on an inspired suggestion unless it is backed up by the name of an expensive market researcher. Dun & Bradstreet Corp’s Dataquest unit is one of the few computer industry market researchers that is widely respected, and part of that respect seems to require that it tots up the previous year’s estimates in the first week of January. Accordingly, Dataquest is telling the world that overall, its purchases of computer systems rose 6.3% on 1992 at $120,700m, with personal computers, already just over half the market in 1992, increasing their pre-eminence, with sales up 16.2% at $66,300m, making up 54.9% of the total market, up from 50.2%. Workstations grew a modest 8.6% to $10,100m – but is a Pentium machine running NT a personal computer or a workstation? An R-series machine running NT? Down in the doghouse, needless to say, were mainframes, with estimated sales down 9.5% to $21,200m, while mid-range systems, where the AS/400 and the VAX predominate, down 3.7% at $21,000m – and those sectors are expected to fall again this year, with mid-range flat at best. Mainframes took 17.5% of the market, down form 20.6% in 1992. Sales of supercomputers rose 6% to $2,200m. Dataquest’s results show IBM Corp losing market share and revenues in every segment except personal computers, where it picked up half a percentage point, and supercomputers, where it saw a strong gain – which means that it sold a handful of its RISC-based Powerparallel systems. It is pretty clear here that in the supercomputer sector, parallel machines should really have a category of their own, separate from the monolithic machines such as the Cray Research Inc Y-MP family and successors.
World-wide Computer Systems
Estimated 1992 and Preliminary 1993 Factory Revenue and Market Share by Product Segment in millions of dollars
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Segment Revenue Share(%) Revenue Share(%) Supercomputer $2,062.1 1.8 $2,198.3 1.8 Mainframe 23,376.4 20.6 21,151.1 17.5 Midrange 21,809.8 19.2 21,000.5 17.4 Workstation 9,327.9 8.2 10,127.5 8.4 PCs 57,045.2 50.2 66,265.0 54.9 Total 113,621.4 100.0 120,742.4 100.0
Top Five Supercomputer Vendors
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Company Revenue Share(%) Revenue Share(%) Cray Rsrch $608.3 29.5 $657.0 29.9 IBM 219.3 10.6 338.3 15.4 Fujitsu 213.4 10.4 254.6 11.6 NCR 230.5 11.2 195.0 8.9 Convex Cmptr 177.9 8.6 132.5 6.0 Others 612.7 29.7 620.9 28.2 Total 2,062.1 100.0 2,198.3 100.0
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Top Five Mainframe Vendors
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Company Revenue Share(%) Revenue Share(%) IBM $12,214.3 52.3 $10,648.9 50.4 Fujitsu 1,564.1 6.7 1,581.7 7.5 Unisys 1,538.4 6.6 1,466.5 6.9 Hitachi 1,344.1 5.8 1,420.3 6.7 NEC 1,363.3 5.8 1,409.6 6.7 Others 5,352.2 22.8 4,624.1 21.8 Total 23,376.4 100.0 21,151.1 100.0
Top Five Midrange Vendors
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Company Revenue Share(%) Revenue Shr(%) IBM $4,860.6 22.3 $4,170.3 19.9 DEC 3,185.8 14.6 2,848.6 13.6 Hewlett-Packard 2,147.2 9.9 2,477.2 11.8 Fujitsu 1,367.4 6.3 1,429.4 6.8 NEC 1,268.5 5.8 1,383.6 6.6 Others 8,980.3 41.1 8,691.4 41.3 Total 21,809.8 100.0 21,000.5 100.0
The list highlights the fact that proprietary business computers are dying much more slowly in Japan than they are in most of the rest of the world.
Top Five Workstation Vendors
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Company Revenue Share(%) Revenue Share(%) Sun Micro $2,991.3 32.1 $3,220.6 31.8 Hewlett-Pcd 1,753.7 18.8 2,289.6 22.6 IBM 1,516.7 16.3 1,470.3 14.5 DEC 982.4 10.5 970.8 9.6 Silicon Gphcs 675.1 7.2 936.3 9.2 Others 1,408.7 15.1 1,240.0 12.3 Total 9,327.9 100.0 10,127.5 100.0
This one is striking, because Dataquest is s
aying that IBM’s challenge with the RS/6000 is fading, and that all its confident claims that it would lead the market by this year won’t be met. DEC’s early lack of enthusiasm for Unix is still hurting.
Top Five Personal Computer Vendors
1992 1993 1992 Market 1993 Market Company Revenue Share(%) Revenue Share(%) IBM $7,448 13.1 $9,015 13.6 Apple 6,048 10.6 7,267 11.0 Compaq 3,478 6.1 6,603 10.0 NEC 2,824 5.0 3,795 5.7 Dell 1,769 3.1 2,532 3.8 Others 35,478 62.1 37,053 55.9 Total 57,045 100.0 66,265 100.0
This table makes it appear that IBM’s achievement in turning its personal computer business around has won it much less than commentators have been suggesting: a mere 0.5 percentage points of market share, far less than Compaq Computer Corp was able to put on – and few believe IBM is making more than the tiniest of margins on PS/1s – far too little to keep it in the manner to which it is accustomed.
