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July 10, 2015

Bad news for Murray fans: Data gives Wimbledon win to Federer

Data analysis suggests Federer may be on his way to his eighth Wimbledon victory.

By Ellie Burns

British tennis fans are, for once, full of optimism and expectation that Murray will do us proud once more and triumph to his second win at Wimbledon 2015.

At the time of writing, Djokovic is waiting to see who will meet him in one of the most prestigous Grand Slam finals – Andy Murray or Roger Federer.

All tennis fans who want to remain optimistic look away now, because Yellowfin have the numbers that point to a decisive Federer victory.

BI software firm Yellowfin analysed the relative prospects of the four men’s singles semi-finalists, with the company looking at a number of indicators such as time played, serving and returning, and overall performance.

Federer has spent just 471 minutes on the Wimbledon courts, with only one of his five matches lasting longer than 90 minutes. That’s circa 40% less court time than each of the other competitors who have all played for more than 640 minutes.

He has only dropped 49 games so far compared to the next best performer Andy Murray who has dropped 65 games.

Similarly, Federer has won 58.8% of all points played at Wimbledon compared to the next strongest performer Richard Gasquet who has won 55.2% of all points he’s played.

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His solid performance is topped off with an impressive serve, having won 82% of points played in his service games. That’s a significantly higher ratio than the next best performer, and number one seed, Novak Djokovic, who has won 74% of his service points.

The good news for British tennis fans? Murray has the best head-to-head record versus Federer, having won 11 of 23 matches played – that’s very nearly 50%. At least the data gives us some hope for victory.

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