Comparex Informationssysteme GmbH, with Germanic understatement, says that the prospects for the 12 months of 1992, are somewhat unfavourable. Rolf Brillinger, chief executive of BASF’s computer subsidiary and one of three Hitachi Ltd distributors in Europe, made no bones about the state of the mainframe market as he commented on Comparex results for the six months to June 30. Turnover may be up 3% to $359.7m, but by the end of the 12 months, it is expected to fall far short of original forecasts as will profitability. Brillinger complains that the lack of capital investment and weak economic activity is merely a backdrop to a slide in prices far steeper than anything in the industry’s previous experience – 40% on a year-to-year basis and up to a 10% fall in some months. Given that, it comes as a surprise to see mainframes accounting for $134.2m, 37% of turnover, a 5% increase on last year. However, Brillinger is unequivocal, saying that was due to a backlog in demand and an initial boom in Germany following reunification. A bubble that has since burst. Consequently, mainframes will constitute a much lower percentage in the future.
Unix workstation
Brillinger says that Comparex in the UK has not shipped any high-end systems (9/950 and 9/960) in the first six months. Peripherals, at $155m or 43% of turnover, were slightly down on last year, although services rose by 1% to $70.5m. As always, rental is a bulwark, bringing in $126.2m, over 33% of the total. Outright sales accounted for approximately $233.5m, 65%, although Germany remains flat at $173.8m while exports rose by 5% to $185.9m. So much for the figures, which do nothing but reflect a worldwide recession and difficult market. If the prospects are so grim and there is little sign of an uplift, what does a beleaguered mainframe supplier do? Like so many in the sector, Comparex is talking of diversification, open systems and services. It intends to launch a Unix workstation within six months – and it may not be sourced from Hitachi, at the same time assisting existing customers to move from MVS to distributed Unix systems. Why, asks Brillinger, pursue IBM’s MVS interests if the customer has already decided to downsize? Even if Comparex skills are rooted in MVS, VM and VSE, it has the resources of BASF on which to draw. Diversification and lessening its reliance on Hitachi mainframes seem to be key to Comparex’ survival plan. While it is a long-established supplier of Hitachi peripherals, it is developing the Viking RAID array with Amperif Corp (CI No 1,880), and that is on schedule for first quarter 1993. Sources also speculate that Comparex may be looking in other directions, and the world of facilities management must have its appeal – although spokesmen refuse to be drawn on it. It would be unfair to say that Comparex is planning a full-scale withdrawal from the mainframe market, but the company is plainly hedging its bets. Which is essential given the downturn both here and Japan where Hitachi’s largest customer, Nissan Motor Co, has decided to freeze its computer investment this year. That shortfall cannot be made good from international revenues. Comparex is a major European player, but it seems to have decided on preserving and consolidating its existing base. There are opportunities for new business – in France, for example, where rival and sibling distributor, Hitachi Data Systems, has difficulty supporting VM and VSE sites. Nonetheless, no one should be too surprised if the Comparex name becomes associated more often with services. It would entail a restructuring and the acquisition of new skills, but there isn’t enough business and margins remain too low, for any mainframe suplier to have no fall-back position.
