Sales of X Window System software and X-terminals are still booming, according to the X Business Group, which estimates growth in the X-terminal business at around 100%, while sales of personal computer X-server products are growing at an astonishing 300%. Part of that growth seems to be due to the fact that, until recently, most PC-X servers were unreliable and slow. Unit sales should top 175,000 units this year, up from 58,500 last year. Of last year’s sales, worth $15m, 26,600 were MS-Windows-based, 4,000 Macintosh based and the rest were MS-DOS. Hummingbird took a commanding lead (29%) of the MS-DOS business, but lost out to the UK’s VisionWare in the MS-Windows sector through not having its product ready in time. The latest entrant, Quarterdeck with the long-awaited Desqview/X, however, has been stirring up the market with some high profile selling, backed by a positive reception from the industry. White Pines Software Inc of Nashua, New Hampshire was the star in the Macintosh world. According to Stephen Auditaire of the Fremont, California-based X Business Group, corporations are adopting X as a component of their personal computer integration strategy and that won’t necessarily affect X-terminal business, as personal computers are normally used only for occasional access to corporate databases, not the constant heavy graphical use more suited to X-terminals. A different story emerges if you approach the two sides – Hummingbird maintains that X-terminals will soon be obsolete, that personal computers are cheaper (especially for colour) and more functional, offering access to personal computer applications as well.
DEC mostly confined to own base
Tektronix says that personal computers, even with the 80486, are far slower, that hidden costs such as graphics boards make them more expensive, that TCP/IP is hard to install and maintain on a personal computer, and that X-terminals are easier to administer. According to Personal Computers and the X Window System, the latest report from the X Business Group, it is the take-up of X by commercial customers that has caused the explosion, with database access expected to account for 32% of sales, mapping and geographic information systems 16% and software engineering 11%. Last year, 46% of sales were to CAD/CAM users: this year that may drop to just 8%. Meanwhile the X-terminal market is still dominated by Network Computing Devices, which in 1991 achieved a 25% share of the $358m business, followed by Hewlett-Packard’s 17%, Digital Equipment Corp’s 14%, IBM’s 11% and Tektronix’s 7%. Network Computing’s share shows no sign of slipping, says Blatnik of the X Business Group, even though system vendors are all likely to increase their share – one reason might be that it’s more important for Network Computing systems to work with a variety of hosts Peter Wellings of Network Computing’s UK distributor Xanadu claims that DEC, for instance, has had its X-terminal success mostly confined to its own customer base. It is, however, now committed to find its own end-user business, and is thought to be talking to Ing C Olivetti & Co SpA. Tektronix, the other main independent, drastically slashed its prices at the Xhibition trade show in June in an effort to up market share. If Blatnik’s analysis is correct, then things look bleak for the smaller vendors, all trying to gain a significant share. And if Sun enters, watch out!
