A new report on broadband communications paints an optimistic view of the technology’s future but warns that its success depends on regulators and implementors getting their act together. The report from UK-based consultancy Ovum Ltd predicts that by the year 2000 there will be 655,000 broadband connections in the US, 128,000 in the UK, 112,000 in France, and 170,000 in Germany. Revenue from broadband is predicted to be between $1,000m and $3,000m in each of the UK, France and Germany, and $11,000 in the US, representing between 6% and 7% of total telecommunications revenues. However, the authors also identify a number of factors that have stunted market development and may continue to do so unless swift action is taken. In particular, the finger is pointed at the slow pace of standardisation in the allied areas of multimedia data standards and metropolitan and wide area network technologies. The other group that needs to take action in order to guarantee a super-soaraway broadband-laden future according to the report is the regulators. It is the effect of this latter category that Ovum feels has characterised broadband’s development in the US. The separation of services into the Regional Bell Operating Companies and Inter-exchange Carrier companies, is seen as having been a stumbling block for the national development of broadband services. The report notes, however, that the restrictions that prevent the Baby Bells from manufacturing products and offering information services (which includes the provision of network protocol translation) will be removed by 1993 as a result of legislative actions and lobbying by the Bells, and that as a result they will start to offer metropolitan area network services. It also points out that rolling out these services will provide the local phone companies with a powerful counter to the growth of independent carriers, as well as a natural progression path into B-ISDN. The report also expects that as the Baby Bell provision of metropolitan area networks increases, the inter-exchange carriers will find a lucrative market in offering Inter-Metropolitan services but recommends, that as far as possible the Baby Bells and inter-exchange carriers should synchronise services. With the exception of the UK, the slow rate at which telephone monopolies have been removed in Europe is blamed for having inhibited growth of broadband communications. The report sees the likely development pattern as differing from the US as a result, since there is not the conflict between local and national services. And, according to Ovum, the French market has already shifted emphasis in its attitude to broadband, and France Telecom has revised its view of the technology as the primary market need. It is moving instead towards a more pragmatic approach, with specific services being targeted, the first of these being local network interconnect. This approach is also seen as being a characteristic of the UK market, particularly with regard to British Telecommunications Plc, which is thought to be more cautious about the whole area of broadband following its lack of success with IDA, its non-standard narrowband ISDN service. Germany, by contrast, has an established timetable for the introduction of broadband ISDN, which is to be implemented by 1995, and there is still a high level of priority attached to broadband as a technology. This has manifested itself in a variety of initiatives currently under way, including plans for metropolitan area network trials in several German cities. Areas of greatest demand over the next decade are predicted to be local network interconnection, new applications such as videoconferencing, document image processing and multimedia workstation interconnection, resource sharing, and a corresponding increase in the emphasis on quality service provision from suppliers as reliance on broadband increases.
Frame Relay
Frame Relay is singled out as the largest broadband service in terms of user connections until 1997 (except in France, where the early introduction of a B-ISDN service in 1993
will lead to that taking dominance in 1995) but usage of metropolitan area networks is predicted to reach the same level as Frame Relay by, or during, 1998 in the US, the UK and Germany, and to account for the greatest number of broadband connections by the end of the decade. Usage of metropolitan area networks within Europe is predicted not to grow as fast as in the US, however, as a result of lower user demand and caution from telephone companies. In terms of the speeds being used, low speed access (below 10Mbps) is expected to dominate until the turn of the century, although France is expected to buck the trend again as a result of the early implementation of B-ISDN.
