The market for handwriting recognition software is likely to prove disappointing, and the prospects for a single Unix standard are poor, according to Arthur Patterson, general partner of San Francisco venture capital firm Accel Partners. Speaking to analysts and software vendor executives at an investor seminar co-sponsored by Merrill Lynch & Co and Sentry Market Research Inc the other day, Patterson said that the hype surrounding the imminent delivery of pen-based software is premature, but hardly prescient: at best, handwriting recognition represents a niche market. On the other hand, software for IBM Corp’s RS/6000 should enjoy extremely dynamic growth, some of it at the expense of the AS/400, OS/2 and mainframes. On Unix, various vendor alliances and consortia, such as the Open Software Foundation and Unix System Laboratories Inc, plus the success of vendors such as the Santa Cruz Operation Inc, ensure that there will be no standard Unix in the years to come. Stephen McClellan, first vice-president of Merrill Lunch, said that without exception, all sectors of the economy will increase spending on software. Sentry’s annual survey examines corporate buying plans for over 40 categories of software for personal computers, Digital Equipment Corp’s VAX machines, IBM AS/400 systems, and IBM mainframes. Large corporate sites are budgeting an average of $1.67m each for software this year. For the first time in the history of the industry, personal computer software spending is budgeted to be equal to mainframe software. But the software industry is still very immature and there are surviving vendors in the top 10 from the survey’s first edition, 10 years ago. Five of the firms were acquired by Computer Associates International Inc, three by Dun & Bradstreet Corp. Alliances and acquisitions will continue to mark the software industry, but they do not guarantee success, Sentry suggests: IBM’s 1991 partnerships with Apple signal difficulties in bringing technology to market and it is unlikely that Taligent Inc and Kaleida Inc will develop usable breakthrough technology in a time-frame that will drive future standards. Microsoft Corp’s Windows 3.1 should be a winner Sentry finds that of the 500-plus personal computer sites that responded to the survey, 84% have got Windows or will have it by year-end.
