Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2022 returned to the Fira Gran Via in Barcelona this week after a two-year absence during the pandemic.
Throughout the four-day event, announcements were made technology companies such as Samsung, Huawei, Qualcomm and others around 5G devices, infrastructure and chipsets. Huawei, for example, launched its range of 5G transmission equipment while Qualcomm launched 5G and artificial intelligence (AI) chips.
The Snapdragon X70 is the first 5G-modem RF to feature an integrated AI processor. It will offer 10 Gigabit downloads over 5G, low latency and better power efficiency.
Cisco also introduced its private 5G strategy during MWC 2022. Specifically, Cisco announced its market strategy for enterprises, using analytics, AI, automation and machine learning to work-related applications in industries such as manufacturing, warehouse logistics, hospitality and venues, energy, mining, oil and gas and education.
How is 5G projected to transform enterprise?
While consumer demand is the main driver of 5G, there is a demand from the enterprise sector. According to CB Insights, commercial 5G services have already been deployed in across more than 1,500 cities in over 60 countries worldwide.
Sectors such as manufacturing, energy and utilities, agriculture, healthcare and others are predicted to be transformed by 5G through the Internet of Things (IoT). CB Insights says that IoT devices are projected to grow from 12 billion in 2020 to over 30 billion in 2025. This is more than four devices for every person in the world.
The GSMA also forecasts that the percentage of 5G connections will grow to 25% by 2025.
We need to get smart about spectrum for 5G
While excitement has certainly been brewing during the conference over 5G and the opportunities it brings, it is still clear that the regulatory and policy side of 5G is behind.
According to Nitish Mittal, partner at Everest Group, while there has been “a lot of initiatives in the U.S. and European markets” from regulators focused on spectrum allocation, they have not been met by “equal improvement in 5G adoption and applications.”
“For mid-band 5G spectrum (generally in the range of 1-6 GHz), which the current auctions have focused on, the real impact is expected only by end of 2022 or early 2023 as there’s a lag time to clear operational hurdles,” he told Techmonitor.
“For high-band spectrum (usually 24-40 GHz), the same hurdles don’t exist, but it needs more time to secure leases, real estate approvals, etc. to install base stations and enable usage.”
This isn’t a new challenge when it comes to spectrum allocation and deployment for mobile broadband. Even though it was originally launched in 2012, 4G spectrum allocation was still being fought for at the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC)-15; just over three years later.
The issues come in the form of the deployment ecosystem, says Mittal: “To accelerate adoption, we will also need a more agile and responsive regulatory and enabling framework.
“This includes the role of regulators but also distribution/deployment issues such as logistics, hardware devices, ubiquitous applications etc.”
This isn’t the primary challenge with allocating spectrum, however. The lack of industry standards has also caused issues.
“The industry has to start focusing on leveraging existing standards and technology, compared to creating new ones,” warns Mittal. “A great example here is Open Radio Access Network, or Open RAN, which is an open way to take a disaggregated approach to standard specifications, interfaces, and applications, which can help accelerate how different players in the ecosystem (telcos, cloud computing vendors, system integrators) come together and catalyse innovation on 5G use cases.”
Will we see change on 5G spectrum allocation?
Held every three to four years, WRC will next be held in 2023. In between conferences, extensive studies and preparatory discussions among governments, regulatory authorities, network operators and equipment suppliers take place. Industry forums are also organised for spectrum users at a national, regional and global level.
“WRC-23 is under increased industry pressure to change timelines but more importantly rethink its stance on mid-/low-band spectrum,” says Mittal. “The industry body for mobile network operators, GSMA, has been arguing that for a while to ensure sufficient spectrum in those ranges is available.
“We are more likely to see WRC-23 action on availability and allocation mid-band spectrum (1-7 GHz) which is expected to comprise a larger share of the 5G market, vs accelerating deployment timelines across.”
What is at stake?
The GSMA Intelligence (GSMAi) has released a report that says 5G is expected to generate $960 billion in GDP on a global basis by 2030. However, the association believes that 65% of the overall socio-economic value ($610bn USD) will come from 5G services relying on mid-band spectrum.
What’s more, in its analysis the GSMAi say that if industry capacity targets of 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum are not met, up to $360bn USD of economic impact could be lost.
As part of its argument for mid-band spectrum for 5G, the GSMA explains that it recommends harmonized spectrum available in spectrum ranges 3.5 GHz, 4.8 GHz and 6 GHz.
In another report, the GSMAi focuses on 6 GHz, explaining that “[it] can enable increased wide-area capacity in urban areas for enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable low-latency communication and massive IoT, as well as the provision of fixed wireless access in small towns and villages. If additional mid-band spectrum is not made available, this could increase the cost of public mobile network deployments.”
However, not everyone agrees.
Dean Bubley, an industry analyst and strategy advisor on spectrum policy, says that while it is reasonable to provide sufficient mid-band spectrum for public 5G, it is “important to justify the amount demanded” as well as the alternative options.
“The problem is the 5G industry’s demand forecasts simply do not make sense,” he explains on a LinkedIn post. “A lot of claims are based on a flawed model by a consulting firm, which uses a ludicrous set of assumptions.” He also states that the report relies on “very old [International Telecommunication Union] estimates of what 5G demand might look like.”
The mobile broadband spectrum allocation also faces pressure from other industries such as satellite and broadcast. Each industry will lobby politicians ahead of WRC-23 and make their case for why they should have spectrum allocation.
The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) has marked mid-band spectrum as a priority for WRC-23 so it seems like the mobile industry might have a fight on their hands.
