The US Commerce Department is predicting that the value of US computer shipments will increase by 4% in 1992 to $81,000m, and according to Electronic News, this is the first positive growth rate since 1988. However, the Department says that increased competition, higher import growth, slowing demand for exports and a continuing exodus of US manufacturers will lead to a deficit of more than $1,500m in computers and peripherals. The annual report, US Industrial Outlook, expects an upturn in domestic business spending and civilian government agencies to drive growth in the coming year, and demand for mainframes is expected to recover to $13,000m after a 5% drop in shipments during 1991. Expenditure on workstations, portables and networking equipment should remain high, and workstation shipments by US manufacturers are expected to increase by 28% to $12,000m. The worldwide market for supercomputers expanded by 2% during 1990 and 1991, but that growth may be nearer 5% in 1992, to approximately $1,600m. Also, massively parallel systems will grow by around 20%, although the department does not provide figures for US growth. The US personal computer market, including desktops and portables, will increase during the 12 months, due in part to pen-based and multimedia systems. The Commerce Department predicts that the portable market alone will grow by 40% to nearly $7,000m, and that demand will be led by laptops and palmtops. In the longer term, the Department foresees the US computer industry undergoing significant changes, with US firms gaining almost 50% of revenue by 1996 from systems design, integration, software and post-sales service. Also, hardware revenue will come largely from personal computers and workstations as they become more powerful and handle tasks residing currently on mid-range and mainframe equipment. Domestic software sales are set to grow by 14.3% to $23,200m, and the software market and revenues should outstrip that of both hardware and gross national product. Shipments of electronic components are expected to grow by by 4.7% and that growth should continue at annual rate of between 5% and 7% throughout the mid-1990s. Domestic shipments of semiconductors could rise by 8% in the coming year, and the Department reckons that 1992 will be a moderate-to-strong year for semiconductor producers. A relatively stable year is predicted for telephone equipment manufacturers, with annual growth of 2% or 3% forecast for the coming five years. However, demand for network equipment fell slightly in 1991, with overall shipments of about $10m, and the Department of Commerce warns that there will be fluctuations in demand.
