Latin America is on the doorstep of the United States but is a very long way away from most of Europe apart from Spain and Portugal – we’re talking the kind of closeness that puts Australia just across the water from the UK here, not geographic closeness – so those that have not yet seriously considered Latin America as a market may be interested in a new report (not received for review) from International Data Corp called Latin America Computer Systems Market Review and Forecast, 1992-1997. Conditions still vary greatly from country to country, but liberalisation and relaxation of state control is rapidly improving the investment and trade landscape across the continent – but according to International Data, the current trends in the global computer market have yet to make much impact. It says that despite declining growth rates for minicomputer and mainframe sales in the US and Europe, and nearly flat growth in the Asia Pacific region, the value of multi-user sales in Latin America in expected to continue to expand at a compound annual rate of 5% between 1992 and 1997.
Outdated equipment
The research house claims to have done months of in-country research and on-site interviews and says they indicate that replacements of outdated equipment and new purchases within industries facing increased foreign competition will help shore up demand for multi-user computers over the next five years. The major markets covered in the report are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, but IDC reckons these represent over 90% of unit shipments and value regionally. It guesstimates that total multi-user systems shipped to Latin America in 1992 reached nearly 14,000 units, up 22% from 1991 levels, and unit shipments are expected to increase at an average compound rate of 18% between 1992 and 1997, so that the prospects for multilingual software vendors look rather brighter than for those of hardware vendors. The continued high growth rates for multi-user systems in Latin America relative to other regions stems from the current wave of information systems restructuring. Trade liberalisation is forcing changes in many formerly protected industries, and the flood of new investment coming into the regions is in many cases being funnelled into centralised and distributed information systems in order to enhance competitiveness, according to Paul Pastrone, director of Latin America Research at IDC. Mexico dominated the region with over 4,700 units shipped in 1992, making up 34% of the regional total, and growing at 52% over 1991 levels – but this was accounted for by particularly strong demand for low-end Unix systems – and IDC does believe that the trend towards client-server systems and away from mainframes and monolithic minis is beginning to take hold in Latin America. The Brazilian economy, much larger than that of Mexico, took just 22% of shipments to the region, with growth up just 7% over 1991. Argentina was the only country of the six in the study to show a decline in unit shipments in 1992, which the Framingham, Massachusetts research house calculated at just under 6%. Country-by-country studies highlight local and external factors affecting growth, and the report lists major suppliers in each market. It is being handled by IDC’s Mountain View office. No price was given.
