Apparently to avoid any heated public exchanges, Microsoft Corp chairman Bill Gates and Oracle Corp chief executive Larry Ellison were staged to enable them to snipe at each other’s vision of the future’s network appliance from a distance, at International Data Corp’s European IT Forum in Paris, September 16 and 17. Each chief executive gave a presentation and fielded questions from the audience and from John Gantz, International Data senior vice-president of personal systems and computing.
While acknowledging the future will see a range of appliances that will break the ease-of-use barrier by being able to see, hear, speak and learn, Gates ceded little territory to Ellison.
How many internet access devices will be out there? asked Gantz to which Gates replied, That’s something of a trick question because the personal computer is already a network device that is out there connecting people to networks, processing information. But, yes, there will be a range of devices. The question about what kinds there will be is only a function of what people will be doing with them.
Ellison began provocatively by asking, Will the Microsoft PC be the last PC made? Does innovation stop there? Ellison declared that personal computers are too complex to ever become as pervasive as the television or telephone. The PC is fabulous, a true marvel, but I don’t care how well it does something I don’t need to do, he said. Every 15 years, he said, the computer industry has significantly innovated on the previous standard. This year marks 15 years since the personal computer was introduced in 1981.
The two barriers to everyone getting a computer, he said, are cost and complexity, adding that in the 12 months since the Network Computer idea emerged, models have been introduced ranging from $200 to $800. Why is it cheaper? Because we’ve moved the complexity from the device to the network, he said, adding that such an architecture corresponds more closely to the world’s other mature, essential networks for telephony, electricity and water: All of those networks have a simple appliance attached to a complex network, and the computer network should be no different. Although Ellison was skeptical that personal computer penetration would ever reach the 90th percentile of the television and telephone, he admitted that the Network Computer will never replace the personal computer. The PC did not replace the mainframe, but they are sold in higher volumes because they are easier to use and cheaper, he said. Ellison said Oracle has trials of the Network Computer scheduled with virtually every major European telecommunications operator. He also forecast that the iAPX-86 version of the device, due in December, would dominate the market. The killer application, he said, will be HyperText Mark-up Language-based multimedia electronic mail.
In answer to other internet-related questions, Gates said Microsoft is providing full support for Java. The fastest browser for running Java applications is internet Explorer 3.0 and our J++ is the fastest compiler. Java is a great environment, he said. He demonstrated internet Explorer 4.0, with its integrated HyperText Mark-up Language pages. Despite having backed off its WinPad Personal Digital Assistant project a couple of years ago, Gates says Microsoft’s new Windows CE handheld personal computer is a more mature product. We didn’t even put WinPad on the market because we decided with our partners that we couldn’t get below the $500 mark, we couldn’t get the battery life up around 10 hours and the applications just weren’t there, he said. Its new partners – Compaq Computer Corp, Casio Computer Co, Hewlett-Packard Co, LG Electronics Co and Philips Electronics NV – are doing some excellent hardware, he said. Nonetheless, he said, if it’s the right time, we’ll just wait and keep improving it. We can wait 20 years if we have to. As for Microsoft’s own on-line service, Gates said, It is still in what we call investment mode, but we’re acquiring lots of new subscribers. We’ve got 1.5m subscribers on Microsoft Network, but we need to get the scale up and the profitability there. He noted, however, that Microsoft is home free, because the $16m we invested in Uunet stock is now worth $400m. In conclusion, International Data’s Gantz asked Gates to comment on a recent Time magazine cover that asked whether Gates will own the Web. He said, We’re just plumbers here. It’s interesting to see how much attention those of us get who are making the tools to make access to the internet easy. At his turn, Ellison took a shot at Gates’ modesty. Sure, he’s just a plumber, but the only plumber in town. His job is to get Windows on every client and every server and our job is to prevent that from happening. I’m more than a little concerned that everything is based on Windows.
By Marsha Johnston
