The total wireless subscriber connections in Italy will increase to 89.6 million in 2014, compared to wireless subscriber connections of 88 million in 2009, while in France it will increase to 70 million from 60.5 million during the same period, according to a market intelligence services firm IEMR.
The report said that in Italy, Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) had continued negative subscriber growth in 1Q of 2010 and projects that its subscriber base will decline in coming years with mobile connections reaching 29.2 million in 2014. However, TIM will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Italy.
The research firm forecasts that in the coming two years the average monthly ARPU in Italy will range between €19 and €20, and at operators level, Vodafone’s monthly ARPU will be the topper among mobile operators with €21.70 over the next eight quarters, while Hutchison’s monthly ARPU will remain below €15 over the same period.
According to IEMR, the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will decrease in the future. However, Vodafone will have higher profitability than TIM, Wind, and Hutchison and its EBITDA margins will remain above 50% over the next eight quarters.
In addition, IEMR said that the wireless penetration rate in France is less than 100% and is low when compared with other European countries such as Germany, which has recorded penetration rate of 132% in Q1 2010.
The market research firm said that Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest mobile service provider in the France and will have 29 million mobile subscriber connections in 2014.
The report projects that in the coming two years the industry average monthly ARPU will range between €33 and €34, and expects that ARPU level at Bouygues Telecom will remain higher than those of Orange and SFR at about €40 per month over the next two years.
Further, SFR’s EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) is expected to remain at around 39% over the next eight quarters, while Bouygues Telecom’s profitability is expected to continue to be lower than the largest two operators, the expects that its EBITDA margin will range in between 26% and 27% over the next two years.
