Global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $274bn, $295bn, and $344bn in 2010, 2011, and 2014, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% over the 2009-2014 forecast period, according to a new study by IDC.
The market researcher said the 35% year over year PC semiconductor revenue growth in 2010, primarily driven by mobile PC applications followed by strong growth in enterprise spending in 2011 and 2012, will help achieve a healthy CAGR of 12.2% (2009-2014) for the computing industry segment.
IDC expects wireless industry segment to achieve a record $59.3bn this year helped by a double-digit semiconductor revenue growth in converged mobile devices (smartphones). Industrial, military and aero, and automotive industry segments semiconductor revenues are projected to achieve year-over-year growth of more than 20% in 2010 and a strong five-year CAGR of 13.2%.
The analyst firm said semiconductor revenue of the consumer industry segment will have a muted growth of 5.8% year over year in 2010 and even less in the coming five years. Revenues for the DTV and media tablet markets are expected to show strong growth, while the other device application markets, such as PMP flash, are projected to post sharp declines.
According top the report, Asia/Pacific region is poised to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching over 45% in 2014. Revenues for the Memory sector (DRAM and Flash) is set to reach $66.7bn in 2010 (greater than 52% year-over-year growth), while revenues for the memory market are expected to be flat or slightly decrease in 2011 and 2012.
Mali Venkatesan, research manager of semiconductors at IDC, said: "Overall, we believe that the semiconductor market recovery seen this is year is similar to the one in 2004. The 2010 growth rate based on the bottoms-up model used in the Semiconductor Application Forecaster is consistent with our top-down linear-regression model that factors in seasonality in semiconductor orders and with our scenario analysis model."
