Worldwide sales of DVD-Video players will rise by 140% to 1.2 million units this year, benefiting from the rapidly expanding catalogue of movies from top Hollywood studios and falling hardware prices, predicts Woodstock, Vermont-based consultancy Infotech. The third edition of Infotech’s DVD Assessment report also estimates that DVD-ROM drive sales will exceed 6.5 million units this year. Despite the uncertainty caused by the launch of proprietary, non- standard DVD-Video derivative formats such as DIVX and DTS, major studios and independents are releasing new DVD-Video titles at a pace well ahead of 1997. At the current release rate, InfoTech predicts that the worldwide total of published DVD-Video titles will exceed 3,000 by the end of 1998, up from 732 in 1997. The movie industry has cast a strong vote of confidence in the DVD- Video format by investing in new titles well ahead of the installed base curve, says Julie Schwerin, InfoTech’s chairman and CEO. In the PC industry, the compatibility and performance problems which hindered the launch of DVD-ROM last year have largely been addressed, while OEM prices for a complete DVD solution – a DVD- ROM drive plus audio/video acceleration for DVD-Video playback – are tending towards the $100 mark. This suggests that DVD-ROM drives will be available on a large number of mid-market PC models by the end of this year, the InfoTech report says. With further cost reductions in 1999, DVD-ROM will begin to replace CD-ROM drives in entry-level, sub-$1,000 systems, stimulating strong growth for both hardware and new titles. By 2000, the worldwide DVD-ROM drive installed base will have risen to almost 70 million. Despite the rapid hardware ramp-up on the horizon, interactive DVD-ROM titles remain in relatively short supply, with fewer than 500 worldwide expected by the end of 1998. Our surveys have consistently shown that mainstream publishers find little or no justification for investing in DVD titles ahead of the installed base build-up, Schwerin says. As happened in the early days of the CD-ROM consumer market in 1992 and 1993, a near-term window of opportunity exists for smaller, entrepreneurial publishers to capture shelf space and audience recognition with new products. PC industry demand for DVD-ROM is creating manufacturing opportunities of scale for shared components, helping move DVD- Video players towards mass-market pricing by 2000, InfoTech says. As prices fall, DVD-ROM is expected to migrate to the TV set-top next year with the arrival of the first DVD-equipped videogame consoles and internet appliances. In 2000, 5.5 million TV DVD-ROM appliances will be sold worldwide.
