That is the opinion of Smartner CEO Paul Hedman, who suggested that RIM’s early lead is under threat from Nokia Corp which, by working with Smartner, has become a viable alternative to the popular BlackBerry.
Push-based wireless email services will be a commodity in a year to two years according to Hedman with low-cost offerings, such as those based on Smartner’s Always-On Mail, taking the mass market ahead of more expensive products such as BlackBerry.
RIM might benefit, he said, from buying Smartner as a means of both extending its offering to a broader user base and stalling the otherwise inevitable progress, as he sees it, of Nokia Corp. Despite the Finnish mobile phone giant missing out, Hedman said, on the chance to take out RIM in the days before BlackBerry became the poster child of wireless computing.
Nokia should have bought RIM five years ago, Hedman told ComputerWire. Now they regret they didn’t. But they’re now in a similar situation with Smartner now to what they were with RIM then.
Hedman’s solution is simple. It’s now Nokia versus RIM. RIM should put in a bid on Smartner, he said.
While Smartner is far from being a household name it is arguably the second best placed of the specialist wireless email vendors in terms of live seats.
Hedman said Smartner sold over 100,000 push email client licenses in 2004. But he expects to sell in the region of 400,000 to 600,000 this year as the company’s relationships with Nokia, Ericsson, Fujitsu and others start to reap dividends.
Of these Hedman predicts around 150,000 to 200,000 to become active users, although he said that estimate is conservative as we don’t know how fast consumer use will ramp up. This will contribute to an overall sales increase of around 2,000% in 2005, Hedman said. He would not reveal the sales base from which that increase will be calculated, however.
Hedman also tipped Smartner to add another 15 to 20 mobile operator customers during the year to add to the 24 it already boasts in EMA and Asia Pacific. Smartner can also claim between 350 and 400 enterprise customers, he said.
A move by either RIM or Nokia for Smartner would seem more likely than Goldman Sachs’ recent suggestion that either Nokia or Motorola might launch a takeover bid for the BlackBerry creator, a deal that would command an asking price upwards of $30bn based on RIM’s market capitalization.
Smartner’s white-label offering has considerable appeal for mobile operators, side-stepping the need to co-brand with BlackBerry and offering support for a wider range of mobile devices and lower cost to end users.
Hedman reckons the maximum price for enterprise customers of wireless email should be in the region of 10-12 euros ($13-15) per month, while that for consumers should be no more 4-6 euros ($5-8) per month, or 30-40 euros ($38-50) per year.
Device support currently extends to Symbian and Windows Mobile-based machines, although Hedman said the company is working on Palm OS connectivity to help it address the needs of the North American market, where PalmOne’s Treo 600 has proved popular.
The manufacturers are getting there with their RIM killers. We have a very good business model and very aggressive pricing. This is a mass market. Would you pay 35 euros a month [for BlackBerry]? he said.
