The US Semiconductor Industry Association, San Jose reports that its key indicator, the book-to-bill ratio, improved to 0.95 in December from 0.90 in November and chip markets guru Dr Moshe Handelsman is forecasting a sharp rebound in the first half of 1991. December orders based on the three-month moving average were $1139.0m, up 1.6%, but were 7.8% lower than the comparable figure a year ago. Three-month average shipments in December fell 3.2% to $1,202m compared with the November figure and were down 0.4% on the figure for a year ago. The ratio for October has been revised to 0.96 from the reported 0.95. Dr Handelsman’s firm, Advanced Forecasting of Cupertino, California reckons that there will be no recessionary impact on the semiconductor industry and that both orders and shipments will show major increases in the first half of 1991. Shipments into the US are expected to reach $1,250m, and orders will even be higher, says Dr Handelsman. This translates into about 15% growth compared to the current level of shipments and orders. The book-to-bill is also expected to gain momentum. I will not be surprised if the book-to-bill approaches the 1.2 level in the next few months. Its sluggishness in the last few months was mainly seasonal, he adds. He reckons that the main contributor to the upturn will be the computer end-equipment market, which is claimed to show a recovery pattern similar to the one in 1986. We continue to believe that the industry has begun a new business cycle, he concludes confidently.
